Presidential Prospects in a Dangerous World
 
Before I plunge into world politics I want to share some wonderful news. Michelle and I have had another healthy baby daughter. At 8lbs 4oz Evelyn was born at the RD&E in Exeter on 25th September and we are all doing well (although getting by with just a little less sleep than usual!) I have sharpened up my nappy changing skills, Michelle is prevailing on the feeding front and our other 2 year old daughter is loving her new sister, whilst occasionally ‘over-squeezing’ her just for good measure! The RD&E was excellent and we are both enormously grateful for the friendly and professional attention we received from the midwives.
In amongst preparing for our new arrival and the sleepless nights that have followed there have been a couple of events rather further from home that have captured the attention of us all. Firstly, the election of Barack Obama and secondly the dreadful scenes of terrorist horror in Mumbai. The latter is being played out as I write and at the moment it is not known exactly who the perpetrators of these outrages represent although there are initial suspicions of links to Pakistan and Al-Qaeda.
 
Terrorism has been with us for a long time of course, with the roots of Al-Qaeda itself being traced back to the Muslim Brotherhood of the late 1920s. Within our own country’s history it was as far back as 1605 that we had the plot to blow up parliament which was arguably an attempt every bit as audacious and potentially terrifying in its time, as 9-11 has been in our own. And having been around for a while, terrorism has like all fields of human activity, evolved through time. These evolutionary changes have not been good.
 
The key themes have been greater internationalisation (groups attacking targets in several countries e.g. Al-Qaeda in the US, Africa, Middle East and UK), greater indiscrimination (in which the old days of IRA coded warnings to spare civilian casualties are over), the emergence of higher levels of fanaticism (the suicide bomber prepared to sacrifice his own life), the leveraging of technology for terrorist purposes (the web for the dissemination of hatred, ‘how to’ handbooks and the co-ordination of activity across international frontiers) and the greater interconnectedness of terrorist groups (with different terrorist organisations sharing expertise and assets including training facilities in the pursuit of a common enemy).
 
The next developments are almost certain to include the weapons that terrorists employ. Many experts believe that it may only be a matter of time before low grade nuclear devices are used (in the form of ‘dirty bombs’ that spread low level nuclear contamination over a wide area and thereby cause massive economic damage as large urban areas become ‘no go zones’). In addition, chemical and biological agents (already witnessed in the use of Sarin on the Japanese subway in 1995) may become more commonly employed. If you are not convinced by these worrying possibilities consider the fact that according to the Stamford based Institute for International Studies, by 2002 around 40 kgs of weapons grade Uranium and Plutonium had been stolen from sources within the former Soviet Union and to be effective a ‘dirty bomb’, of course, only needs low level nuclear waste (the kind that can be retrieved from certain hospital equipment). In addition, many nerve and biological agents can be manufactured using relatively accessible ingredients and simple techniques (described on many internet sites). These approaches will allow terrorists the potential to significantly increase their effectiveness in terms of the creation of fear, economic damage and the weakening of the resolve of those they attack.
 
So what can we do about it? There is of course no simple solution. Indeed for the foreseeable future there will be no absolute solution at all. In a world in which a radicalised young man can sit in his bedroom, surf the net for the tools of destruction and collaborate with others of like mind drawn from all over the planet, it is hard to see how the risks can ever be reduced to zero.
 
Yet there are certainly approaches that can and must be taken to improve the odds and this is where I believe that our second big news story, that of the election of Barack Obama, is highly important. Obama potentially represents a clear break with America’s recent troubled international past in which, rightly or wrongly, her standing in the world has deteriorated. Iraq and Afghanistan, her cold shouldering of the Kyoto Treaty, the continued detention without trial at Guantanamo Bay, highly questionable forms of interrogation including Water Boarding, Extraordinary Rendition and other issues have all compounded to position America as heavy handed, unlikely to listen and a nation that has exacerbated many of the problems that it has rightly set out to address. Obama’s campaign slogan ‘Change’ whilst much criticised by his opponents as being little more than a hollow chant could actually translate into powerful political currency in a world in which America needs to redefine its relations with allies and foes alike. Some of the tension can be eased quickly. Guantanamo Bay will be closed early in his Presidency. Discussions with old enemies (including Syria and Iran) could acquire a new impetus. The mood might lighten and into the diplomatic space that this yields the US might gain the opportunity to do deals that will underpin its ability to successfully withdraw from Iraq and improve its effectiveness in tackling the Taliban and Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. The totemic issue of the Middle East might likewise be moved along in a more positive direction.
 
It remains to be seen how Obama fares but I believe that he has the potential to become one of the truly great world leaders. I say this for three reasons. Firstly, he is a young, energetic, brilliant communicator who seems to me to have demonstrated calm assured judgement during the primaries and Presidential contests (including in the face of some pretty cheap negative politics). Secondly, his basic instinct is to reach out to people even where this is highly counter-intuitive (note his initial cross partisan government appointments which include the current Republican incumbent Robert Gates and nomination rival Hilary Clinton). Thirdly he is taking over at a time of great peril for his nation and the world. This last point is perhaps the most important of all. You see to join that exclusive club of Churchill, Washington, Lincoln, Roosevelt et al you have to do more than simply achieve. You have to achieve when the going is potentially catastrophic. And with terrorism stalking the stage, the world’s economy facing melt down, climate disaster looming and Iran reaching ever closer to acquiring the nuclear trigger; the potential for world catastrophe is perhaps the one thing of which this new President can be pretty confident.